Comparing Simple Quasar Demographics Models

This paper explores several simple model variations for the connections among quasars, galaxies, and dark matter halos for redshifts 1 < z < 6. A key component of these models is that we enforce a self-consistent black hole (BH) history by tracking both BH mass and BH growth rate at all redshifts. We connect objects across redshift with a simple constant-number-density procedure, and choose a fiducial model with a relationship between BH and galaxy growth rates that is linear and evolves in a simple way with redshift. Within this fiducial model, we find the quasar luminosity function (QLF) by calculating an "intrinsic" luminosity based on either the BH mass or BH growth rate, and then choosing a model of quasar variability with either a lognormal or truncated power-law distribution of instantaneous luminosities. This gives four model variations, which we fit to the observed QLF at each redshift. With the best-fit models in hand, we undertake a detailed comparison of the four fiducial models, and explore changes to our fiducial model of the BH-galaxy relationship. Each model variation can successfully fit the observed QLF, the shape of which is generally set by the "intrinsic" luminosity at the faint end and by the scatter due to variability at the bright end. We focus on accounting for the reasons that physically different models can make such similar predictions, and on identifying what observational data or physical arguments are most essential in breaking the degeneracies among models.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures, 1 tabl

Patient education programs – can they improve outcomes in COPD?

It is important to assess the effectiveness of patient education programs for people with COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) to ensure that limited health resources are being spent effectively. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of programs reported to date, and to look for ways of designing more effective programs

Providing reviews of evidence to COPD patients: qualitative study of barriers and facilitating factors to patient-mediated practice change

This study aimed to identify barriers and facilitating factors to people with COPD performing the following actions: (a) reading a manual that contained summaries of evidence on treatments used in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and (b) at a medical consultation, asking questions that were provided in the manual and were designed to prompt doctors to review current treatments in the light of evidence. The manual was developed using current best practice and was designed to facilitate reading and discussion with doctors. Participant comments indicated that they did not see it as possible or acceptable for patients to master research evidence or initiate discussions of evidence with doctors. These appeared to be the main barriers to effectiveness of the manual. If evidence summaries for patients are to be used in disease management, they should be understandable and relevant to patients and provide a basis for discussion between patients and doctors

The MASSIVE Survey - VIII. Stellar Velocity Dispersion Profiles and Environmental Dependence of Early-Type Galaxies

We measure the radial profiles of the stellar velocity dispersions, $\sigma(R)$, for 90 early-type galaxies (ETGs) in the MASSIVE survey, a volume-limited integral-field spectroscopic (IFS) galaxy survey targeting all northern-sky ETGs with absolute $K$-band magnitude $M_K < -25.3$ mag, or stellar mass $M_* > 4 \times 10^{11} M_\odot$, within 108 Mpc. Our wide-field 107" $\times$ 107" IFS data cover radii as large as 40 kpc, for which we quantify separately the inner (2 kpc) and outer (20 kpc) logarithmic slopes $\gamma_{\rm inner}$ and $\gamma_{\rm outer}$ of $\sigma(R)$. While $\gamma_{\rm inner}$ is mostly negative, of the 56 galaxies with sufficient radial coverage to determine $\gamma_{\rm outer}$ we find 36% to have rising outer dispersion profiles, 30% to be flat within the uncertainties, and 34% to be falling. The fraction of galaxies with rising outer profiles increases with $M_*$ and in denser galaxy environment, with 10 of the 11 most massive galaxies in our sample having flat or rising dispersion profiles. The strongest environmental correlations are with local density and halo mass, but a weaker correlation with large-scale density also exists. The average $\gamma_{\rm outer}$ is similar for brightest group galaxies, satellites, and isolated galaxies in our sample. We find a clear positive correlation between the gradients of the outer dispersion profile and the gradients of the velocity kurtosis $h_4$. Altogether, our kinematic results suggest that the increasing fraction of rising dispersion profiles in the most massive ETGs are caused (at least in part) by variations in the total mass profiles rather than in the velocity anisotropy alone.Comment: Accepted/in press, MNRA

The MASSIVE Survey - VII. The Relationship of Angular Momentum, Stellar Mass and Environment of Early-Type Galaxies

We analyse the environmental properties of 370 local early-type galaxies (ETGs) in the MASSIVE and ATLAS3D surveys, two complementary volume-limited integral-field spectroscopic (IFS) galaxy surveys spanning absolute $K$-band magnitude $-21.5 > M_K > -26.6$, or stellar mass $8 \times 10^{9} < M_* < 2 \times 10^{12} M_\odot$. We find these galaxies to reside in a diverse range of environments measured by four methods: group membership (whether a galaxy is a brightest group/cluster galaxy, satellite, or isolated), halo mass, large-scale mass density (measured over a few Mpc), and local mass density (measured within the $N$th neighbour). The spatially resolved IFS stellar kinematics provide robust measurements of the spin parameter $\lambda_e$ and enable us to examine the relationship among $\lambda_e$, $M_*$, and galaxy environment. We find a strong correlation between $\lambda_e$ and $M_*$, where the average $\lambda_e$ decreases from $\sim 0.4$ to below 0.1 with increasing mass, and the fraction of slow rotators $f_{\rm slow}$ increases from $\sim 10$% to 90%. We show for the first time that at fixed $M_*$, there are almost no trends between galaxy spin and environment; the apparent kinematic morphology-density relation for ETGs is therefore primarily driven by $M_*$ and is accounted for by the joint correlations between $M_*$ and spin, and between $M_*$ and environment. A possible exception is that the increased $f_{\rm slow}$ at high local density is slightly more than expected based only on these joint correlations. Our results suggest that the physical processes responsible for building up the present-day stellar masses of massive galaxies are also very efficient at reducing their spin, in any environment.Comment: Accepted to MNRA

The MASSIVE Survey - X. Misalignment between Kinematic and Photometric Axes and Intrinsic Shapes of Massive Early-Type Galaxies

We use spatially resolved two-dimensional stellar velocity maps over a $107"\times 107"$ field of view to investigate the kinematic features of 90 early-type galaxies above stellar mass $10^{11.5}M_\odot$ in the MASSIVE survey. We measure the misalignment angle $\Psi$ between the kinematic and photometric axes and identify local features such as velocity twists and kinematically distinct components. We find 46% of the sample to be well aligned ($\Psi < 15^{\circ}$), 33% misaligned, and 21% without detectable rotation (non-rotators). Only 24% of the sample are fast rotators, the majority of which (91%) are aligned, whereas 57% of the slow rotators are misaligned with a nearly flat distribution of $\Psi$ from $15^{\circ}$ to $90^{\circ}$. 11 galaxies have $\Psi \gtrsim 60^{\circ}$ and thus exhibit minor-axis ("prolate") rotation in which the rotation is preferentially around the photometric major axis. Kinematic misalignments occur more frequently for lower galaxy spin or denser galaxy environments. Using the observed misalignment and ellipticity distributions, we infer the intrinsic shape distribution of our sample and find that MASSIVE slow rotators are consistent with being mildly triaxial, with mean axis ratios of $b/a=0.88$ and $c/a=0.65$. In terms of local kinematic features, 51% of the sample exhibit kinematic twists of larger than $20^{\circ}$, and 2 galaxies have kinematically distinct components. The frequency of misalignment and the broad distribution of $\Psi$ reported here suggest that the most massive early-type galaxies are mildly triaxial, and that formation processes resulting in kinematically misaligned slow rotators such as gas-poor mergers occur frequently in this mass range.Comment: Accepted to MNRA

Opportunistic screening for atrial fibrillation by clinical pharmacists in UK general practice during the influenza vaccination season: a cross-sectional feasibility study

Background: Growing prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in the ageing population, and its associated life-changing health and resource implications, have led to a need to improve its early detection. Primary care is an ideal place to screen for AF, however this is limited by shortages in general practitioner (GP) resources. Recent increases in the number of clinical pharmacists within primary care, makes them ideally placed to conduct AF screening. This study aimed to determine the feasibility of GP practice-based clinical pharmacists to screen the over 65s for AF, using digital technology and pulse palpation during the influenza vaccination season. Methods and Findings: Screening was conducted over two influenza vaccination seasons, 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 in four GP practices in Kent, UK. Pharmacists were trained by a cardiologist to pulse palpate, record and interpret a single-lead ECG (SLECG). Eligible persons aged ≥65 years, attending an influenza vaccination clinic were offered a free heart rhythm check. 604 participants were screened (median age 73 years, 42.7% male). Total prevalence of AF was 4.3%. All participants with AF qualified for anticoagulation and were more likely to be male (57.7%); older; have an increased BMI and have a CHA2DS2-VASc (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥ 75, Diabetes, previous Stroke, Age 65-74 years, Sex category) score ≥ 3. The sensitivity and specificity of clinical pharmacists diagnosing AF using pulse palpation was 76.9% [95% CI: 56.4-91.0] and 92.2% [89.7-94.3], respectively. This rose to 88.5% (69.9-97.6) and 97.2% [95.5-98.4] with a SLECG. At follow-up, four participants (0.7%) were diagnosed with new AF and 3 (0.5%) were initiated on anticoagulation. Screening with SLECG also helped identify new non-AF cardiovascular diagnoses, such as left ventricular hypertrophy, in 28 participants (4.6%). The screening strategy was cost-effective in 71.8% and 64.3% of the estimates for SLECG or pulse palpation, respectively. Feedback from participants (422/604) was generally positive. Key limitations of the study were that the intervention did not reach individuals who did not attend the practice for an influenza vaccination and there was a limited representation of UK ethnic minority groups in the study cohort. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that AF screening performed by GP practice-based pharmacists was feasible, economically viable and positively endorsed by participants. Furthermore, diagnosis of AF by the clinical pharmacist using a SLECG was more sensitive and more specific than the use of pulse palpation alone. Future research should explore the key barriers preventing the adoption of national screening programmes

The MASSIVE Survey - V. Spatially-Resolved Stellar Angular Momentum, Velocity Dispersion, and Higher Moments of the 41 Most Massive Local Early-Type Galaxies

We present spatially-resolved two-dimensional stellar kinematics for the 41 most massive early-type galaxies (MK ~ 10^11.8 Msun) of the volume-limited (D < 108 Mpc) MASSIVE survey. For each galaxy, we obtain high-quality spectra in the wavelength range of 3650 to 5850 A from the 246-fiber Mitchell integral-field spectrograph (IFS) at McDonald Observatory, covering a 107" x 107" field of view (often reaching 2 to 3 effective radii). We measure the 2-D spatial distribution of each galaxy's angular momentum (lambda and fast or slow rotator status), velocity dispersion (sigma), and higher-order non-Gaussian velocity features (Gauss-Hermite moments h3 to h6). Our sample contains a high fraction (~80% ) of slow and non-rotators with lambda <~ 0.2. When combined with the lower-mass ETGs in the ATLAS3D survey, we find the fraction of slow-rotators to increase dramatically with galaxy mass, reaching ~50% at MK ~ -25.5 mag and ~90% at MK <~ -26 mag. All of our fast rotators show a clear anti-correlation between h3 and V/sigma, and the slope of the anti-correlation is steeper in more round galaxies. The radial profiles of sigma show a clear luminosity and environmental dependence: the 12 most luminous galaxies in our sample (MK <~ -26 mag) are all brightest cluster/group galaxies (except NGC 4874) and all have rising or nearly flat sigma profiles, whereas five of the seven "isolated" galaxies are all fainter than MK = -25.8 mag and have falling sigma. All of our galaxies have positive average h4; the most luminous galaxies have average h4 ~ 0.05 while less luminous galaxies have a range of values between 0 and 0.05. Most of our galaxies show positive radial gradients in h4, and those galaxies also tend to have rising sigma profiles. We discuss the implications for the relationship among dynamical mass, sigma, h4, and velocity anisotropy for these massive galaxies.Comment: 32 pages, 14 figures, 16 appendix figures. Accepted to MNRA

The MASSIVE Survey - XII Connecting Stellar Populations of Early-Type Galaxies to Kinematics and Environment

We measure the stellar populations as a function of radius for 90 early-type galaxies (ETGs) in the MASSIVE survey, a volume-limited integral-field spectroscopic (IFS) galaxy survey targeting all northern-sky ETGs with absolute K-band magnitude M_K < -25.3 mag, or stellar mass M* 4x10^11 M_sun, within 108 Mpc. We are able to measure reliable stellar population parameters for individual galaxies out to 10-20 kpc (1-3 R_e) depending on the galaxy. Focusing on ~R_e (~10 kpc), we find significant correlations between the abundance ratios, sigma, and M* at large radius, but we also find that the abundance ratios saturate in the highest-mass bin. We see a strong correlation between the kurtosis of the line of sight velocity distribution (h4) and the stellar population parameters beyond R_e. Galaxies with higher radial anisotropy appear to be older, with metal-poorer stars and enhanced [alpha/Fe]. We suggest that the higher radial anisotropy may derive from more accretion of small satellites. Finally, we see some evidence for correlations between environmental metrics (measured locally and on >5 Mpc scales) and the stellar populations, as expected if satellites are quenched earlier in denser environments.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figures, Appendix not included here due to size constraints. Posted after responding to referee's comment

The MASSIVE Survey. VI. The spatial sistribution and kinematics of warm ionized gas in the most massive local early-type galaxies

We present the first systematic investigation of the existence, spatial distribution, and kinematics of warm ionized gas as traced by the [O ii] 3727 Å emission line in 74 of the most massive galaxies in the local universe. All of our galaxies have deep integral-field spectroscopy from the volume- and magnitude-limited MASSIVE survey of early-type galaxies with stellar mass $\mathrm{log}({M}_{* }/{M}_{\odot })\gt 11.5$ (M K < −25.3 mag) and distance D < 108 Mpc. Of the 74 galaxies in our sample, we detect warm ionized gas in 28, which yields a global detection fraction of 38 ± 6% down to a typical [O ii] equivalent width limit of 2 Å. MASSIVE fast rotators are more likely to have gas than MASSIVE slow rotators with detection fractions of 80 ± 10% and 28 ± 6%, respectively. The spatial extents span a wide range of radii (0.6–18.2 kpc; 0.1–4R e ), and the gas morphologies are diverse, with 17/28 ≈ 61 ± 9% being centrally concentrated, 8/28 ≈ 29 ± 9% exhibiting clear rotation out to several kiloparsecs, and 3/28 ≈ 11 ± 6% being extended but patchy. Three out of four fast rotators show kinematic alignment between the stars and gas, whereas the two slow rotators with robust kinematic measurements available exhibit kinematic misalignment. Our inferred warm ionized gas masses are roughly ~105 M ⊙. The emission line ratios and radial equivalent width profiles are generally consistent with excitation of the gas by the old underlying stellar population. We explore different gas origin scenarios for MASSIVE galaxies and find that a variety of physical processes are likely at play, including internal gas recycling, cooling out of the hot gaseous halo, and gas acquired via mergers